Renewable energy marketing in Uzbekistan: investment outcomes and stakeholder perceptions (2015-2025)

Abstract

Uzbekistan’s renewable energy sector went through dramatic changes between 2015 and 2025. These shifts were closely tied to the economic and legal reforms that followed the change of government in 2016. Three developments proved most significant: the 2017 currency convertibility reform, the open tender systems introduced in 2019, and the government’s consistent efforts to attract foreign investment. Together, these factors created an investment climate that is rarely seen among former Soviet republics still going through transitional periods. This paper turns attention to one underexplored aspect of that era - how marketing strategies influenced investment outcomes, and for whom those effects mattered most. Three stakeholder groups are examined: international investors, domestic businesses, and urban households. The research was conducted using a sequential mixed-methods approach. Time-series data on investment flows and installed capacity from 2015 to 2025 were studied alongside a systematic analysis of 812 government promotional materials. Surveys were carried out with international investors (n=45), domestic businesses (n=120), and urban households (n=600), and interviews were conducted with 15 experts. Since the period covered by the econometric analysis is relatively short - seven years - the quantitative findings are presented not as definitive conclusions, but as indicative data pointing toward broader trends. The analysis identified three distinct patterns. Marketing aimed at international investors appears to have contributed to growth in foreign direct investment: annual FDI inflows grew from approximately USD 25 million in 2015 to USD 636 million by 2023, already surpassing earlier projections of USD 500 million by 2025. Investor sentiment also improved considerably between 2019 and 2023. Consumer-facing campaigns achieved wide reach - around 68% of urban households reported being aware of them. Yet residential solar adoption has remained below 1%. The household survey highlighted an important finding: knowing the specific steps required to begin an installation (procedural knowledge) had approximately 60% stronger predictive power on adoption intention compared to general awareness alone (OR=1.95 vs. 1.20). Domestic businesses fell somewhere in the middle - their awareness levels were reasonable, but most had yet to take any concrete action. Taken as a whole, these results highlight the importance of tailoring approaches to each stakeholder group within energy transition policy, and offer governments practical guidance on how to distribute promotional resources across investors, businesses, and ordinary households.